this is one of my favorite sporting events of the year. i absolutley love derby day and this year's field is pretty strong.
post positions and morning line odds to win:
1 - daddy long legs 30-1
2 - optimizer 50-1
3 - take charge indy 15-1
4 - union rags 9-2
5 - dullahan 8-1
6 - bodemeister 4-1
7 - rousing sermon 50-1
8 - creative cause 12-1
9 - trinniberg 50-1
10 - daddy nose best 15-1
11 - alpha 15-1
12 - prospective 30-1
13 - went the day well 20-1
14 - hansen 10-1
15 - gemologist 6-1
16 - el padrino 20-1
17 - done talking 50-1
18 - sabercat 30-1
19 - i'll have another 12-1
20 - liaison 50-1
imo, there are 7 horses that have a legit shot at this thing: take charge indy, union rags, dullahan, bodemeister, creative cause, hansen and gemologist. would it surprise me to see a horse like alpha win? not really, but i think the winner is going to come from one of the 7 listed above.
bodemeister is the morning line favorite (and will likely go off as the favorite) because he absolutely dominated the field in the arkansas derby 3 weeks ago and becaue he is a bob baffert horse.
take charge indy will get a lot of play (i wish i could place a wager on him going off at a much worse price than 15-1) because he beat union rags in the florida derby and calvin borel, who loves being on the rail, is his jockey and they drew the #3 starting gate. i like the horse, but i'm not sure he is good enough to win the derby unless he gets a perfect trip.
i think union rags is probably the "best" horse in the field, but his trip in the florida derby posted above gives me slight worry. he got caught up in traffic in a 9 horse field, what is he going to do in a 20 horse field? to be fair to him though, watch this kick:
because i expect the pace to be blistering (trinniberg will likely become a champion sprinter, but is not bread for anything close to the KD distance. he is most likely the pace setter though and i think it will be very fast), dullahan is a horse i could see winning as he is a talented closer. watch him close on hansen (another horse who will likely be up on the pace) here:
if the pace is as fast as i expect it to be, dullahan has a real shot here.
creative cause is a horse i really like because he has never finished off the board and he has only been beaten by a length or two whenever he has been beaten. just a good, solid racehorse. he runs down bodemeister here:
hansen is probably my favorite horse in the field. i love the way he goes balls to the wall and i love his heart. i just worry that he is going to try and challenge trinniberg from the getgo and be spent down the stretch. i don't expect him to win (or even finish in the top 3), but i definitely wouldn't be surprised if he did and i'd love to see it. watch him $#@!ing fly in last year's breeder's cup juvenile (beating union rags and creative cause). there were something like 9 derby horses in this race:
gemologist is the final horse i think could win. 1 - he's never lost. 2 - i really like his trainer, todd pletcher. watch him battle alpha (another good, solid derby horse) down the stretch here:
i'm not at the point where i want to pick a winner just yet, but i do think the winner comes from these 7 horses. i need to do a lot more looking into it, but if i had to make my picks right now i'd go:
1 - union rags
2 - dullahan
3 - creative cause
anyone read and watch all of this?