2012 kentucky derby

[BigOrange]

this is one of my favorite sporting events of the year. i absolutley love derby day and this year's field is pretty strong.

post positions and morning line odds to win:

1 - daddy long legs 30-1
2 - optimizer 50-1
3 - take charge indy 15-1
4 - union rags 9-2
5 - dullahan 8-1
6 - bodemeister 4-1
7 - rousing sermon 50-1
8 - creative cause 12-1
9 - trinniberg 50-1
10 - daddy nose best 15-1
11 - alpha 15-1
12 - prospective 30-1
13 - went the day well 20-1
14 - hansen 10-1
15 - gemologist 6-1
16 - el padrino 20-1
17 - done talking 50-1
18 - sabercat 30-1
19 - i'll have another 12-1
20 - liaison 50-1

imo, there are 7 horses that have a legit shot at this thing: take charge indy, union rags, dullahan, bodemeister, creative cause, hansen and gemologist. would it surprise me to see a horse like alpha win? not really, but i think the winner is going to come from one of the 7 listed above.

bodemeister is the morning line favorite (and will likely go off as the favorite) because he absolutely dominated the field in the arkansas derby 3 weeks ago and becaue he is a bob baffert horse.



take charge indy will get a lot of play (i wish i could place a wager on him going off at a much worse price than 15-1) because he beat union rags in the florida derby and calvin borel, who loves being on the rail, is his jockey and they drew the #3 starting gate. i like the horse, but i'm not sure he is good enough to win the derby unless he gets a perfect trip.



i think union rags is probably the "best" horse in the field, but his trip in the florida derby posted above gives me slight worry. he got caught up in traffic in a 9 horse field, what is he going to do in a 20 horse field? to be fair to him though, watch this kick:



because i expect the pace to be blistering (trinniberg will likely become a champion sprinter, but is not bread for anything close to the KD distance. he is most likely the pace setter though and i think it will be very fast), dullahan is a horse i could see winning as he is a talented closer. watch him close on hansen (another horse who will likely be up on the pace) here:



if the pace is as fast as i expect it to be, dullahan has a real shot here.

creative cause is a horse i really like because he has never finished off the board and he has only been beaten by a length or two whenever he has been beaten. just a good, solid racehorse. he runs down bodemeister here:



hansen is probably my favorite horse in the field. i love the way he goes balls to the wall and i love his heart. i just worry that he is going to try and challenge trinniberg from the getgo and be spent down the stretch. i don't expect him to win (or even finish in the top 3), but i definitely wouldn't be surprised if he did and i'd love to see it. watch him $#@!ing fly in last year's breeder's cup juvenile (beating union rags and creative cause). there were something like 9 derby horses in this race:



gemologist is the final horse i think could win. 1 - he's never lost. 2 - i really like his trainer, todd pletcher. watch him battle alpha (another good, solid derby horse) down the stretch here:



i'm not at the point where i want to pick a winner just yet, but i do think the winner comes from these 7 horses. i need to do a lot more looking into it, but if i had to make my picks right now i'd go:

1 - union rags
2 - dullahan
3 - creative cause

anyone read and watch all of this?

[Dixie Normous]

Damn it seems like I checked the potential field about a month ago and all the favorites at that time aren't even in the field...

[BigOrange]

who? algorithims is the only one that comes to mind. i guess secret circle as well.

[alincoln]

Great summary for someone like me who only watches the triple crown races.

That Bodemeister performance in AR was ridic

[Quadry]

I've see Bodemeister run once this year and the horse is legit. My money is going to be on a Place and Show bet with Take Charge Indy. I am guessing Bodemeister will be bet down, due to the performance in the AR Derby. Kind of crazy how Union lost being the favorite, due to one race. Lots of very good horses and this is going to be a tough race for handicappers.

I love horses who are sitting around a 6-1 and above line. I am thinking that El Padrino will be another that has a legit shot that will be at good odds for the bettor. The thing that sucks for EP is the draw position, very tough to not get squeezed right there. Bode has a perfect spot to stay out of the trash, as does Take Charge.

I agree that Trinniberg is going to take the pace, barring some horse from the outside trying to run the field at a fast pace. I do not think Bodemeister wins this, as the field is too deep.

I will be at Oaklawn to bet on Sat and my lineup could change, but as of now I will take:

Take Charge Indy
Creative Cause
El Padrino
Hansen

[Kevin O'Shea]

Union Rags FTW. Had him picked since last year.

[Zen]

I love the field this year. Hated it last year...but there are so many high quality horses, this is just going to be one hell of a fun race.

I know Union Rags and Gemologist will both be in my trifecta box. Those two are just huge beasts.

Also betting Rousing Sermon straight to win...there's something about that horse I love.

[po elvis]

right now i am going with creative cause. even though every year i tell myself that the next year i will just box some longshot closers. they seem to be coming in lately.

[BigOrange]

ha, take charge indy has already been bet down to 9-1. how predictable.

union rags is now the current favorite at 6-1. jesus this is going to be a good betting race.

[CBT]

Very nice OP. I love this article about the Derby.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...kentucky-derby

[BigOrange]

coverage of the oaks is now on whatever nbc is calling the channel that used to be versus nowadays. there was a big thunderstorm about 45 minutes ago and so things are delayed a bit. the oaks was supposed to be run at 4:45 and now will go off closer to 5:30.

if you want to get a glimpse of my handicapping skills, or lack thereof, i've got the oaks at:

#6 - broadway's alibi 6-1
#2 - grace hall 5/2
#11 - karlovy vary 28-1

[Quadry]

Grace hall
Summer Applause
On Fire Baby

[BigOrange]

holy $#@!, that jockey took a bad fall.

[po elvis]

On Fire Baby
Summer Applause
Hard Not To Like
Broadway Alibi

i did my quick 5 minute handicap.

[Zen]

Loving NBC's coverage of this all week. They are doing a stellar job.

And Why Not
Summer Applause
Believe You Can

[Quadry]

Between all of us we would have made some good cash. I took Grace Hall on a show. Glad I remove my place bet last minute

[texas08]

Where the $#@! can I place a bet!!?!!

Some friends and I will be gambling in Oklahoma tomorrow, but the Winstar has some weird $#@!ing betting system going on. Can someone enlighten me?

EL PADRINOOOOOO!
Take Charge Indy
Creative Cause

[texas08]

Passport Rewards?!? GTFO!

http://winstarworldcasino.com/mobile...ky-derby-bonus

[BigOrange]

if you want to bet online, twinspires.com is a great site.

[texas08]

Thanks for the rec man!

I. May. Be. Hooked.

Giving the damn ss# sucks, but the site looks legit. Love that you can stream races. Quick question, do you know if Ruidoso downs and Lone Star in Grand Praire are there? Im on my phone and don't wanna register just now.

Also, I'm a bit new to horse betting. Would any of this stuff get reported to the IRS (winnings)? How does that aspect of things work?

Thanks for the advice, just learning the game.

[Sleepygrad]

a buddy in the know said the Gemologist drew a very favorable spot and will be able to get a clean start because of it. He said placing a bet on Gemologist to win, place or show is the way to go....fwiw

[po elvis]

starting to REALLY like alpha. probably go across board on alpha and creative cause, both should be more than 10 to 1.

[BigOrange]

Thanks for the rec man!

I. May. Be. Hooked.

Giving the damn ss# sucks, but the site looks legit. Love that you can stream races. Quick question, do you know if Ruidoso downs and Lone Star in Grand Praire are there? Im on my phone and don't wanna register just now.

Also, I'm a bit new to horse betting. Would any of this stuff get reported to the IRS (winnings)? How does that aspect of things work?

Thanks for the advice, just learning the game.

both of those tracks (ruidoso and lone star) are on there. pretty much every track in the country is.

as far as winnings being reported to the irs, i have never won enough (no more than a couple of hundred dollars or so) that it's been an issue. i'm sure if you hit a $45,000 pick 3, the government is gonna hear about it.

[po elvis]

If you win $600 and the odds on the bet are 300 to 1 then it gets reported to the IRS. Also if you win $5000 they automatically withhold taxes.

[texas08]

I doubt I'll ever win enough to have to report, but...I'm guessing it would be if you win $600 or more per bet right?

Not a sum if winnings thorough the year, right?

Excellent info. Thank you.

[po elvis]

I doubt I'll ever win enough to have to report, but...I'm guessing it would be if you win $600 or more per bet right?

Not a sum if winnings thorough the year, right?

Excellent info. Thank you.

if on one bet you win $600 and the odds are $300 then you have to fill out a form with your social security number and it gets reported to the IRS.

so if you win a $2 trifecta that pays $600, it gets reported. if you do the $1 trifecta for the same race and you get $300, it doesn't get reported. if you do a $1 trifecta and it pays $600, it gets reported. say you put $20 to win on a 30 to 1 horse and he wins, it does not get reported. You won $600, but the odds of the bet were not atleast 300 to 1.

[texas08]

$#@! it! $3,000 on El Padrino!

jk.

I don't like any other type of gambling or betting...just this beautiful sport. So I'm learning the ropes!

[Quadry]

I hit a super a few years ago that had to be reported. They send you a form

[texas08]

so tvg.com has a great website as well, any one have any experience using their site?

twinspires was recommended above. need to decide which one is better (bets and overall usefulness).

[BigOrange]

i haven't tried tvg's site. i found twinspires a couple of years ago on derby day (super saver won me money on the first bet i ever made there). it's worked out for me very well since then so i haven't ever felt the need to try another site.

i do watch tvg a lot though. i'm sure their site is just fine.

[BigHerm24]

Big O - If you had to pick between Union Rags and Bodemeister, who ya got?

[Jive Turkey]

thanks for the analysis and legwork, BO. i'm not a handicapper or anything, but i do love the Kentucky Derby.

[BigOrange]

Big O - If you had to pick between Union Rags and Bodemeister, who ya got?

union rags, but he is being bet down big time. wouldn't be surprised if he goes off at somewhere near 3-1.

[BigOrange]

also, the past performances are available for free here: http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/dby0505y

please, do not operate under the assumption that i know anything.

[Zen]

Going final here. I'm not looking for Gemologist or Bodemeister to do well based on the history of Wood and Arkansas Derby winners.

Trifecta Box based on jockeys with -
Dullahan, Went the Day Well, Sabercat, Union Rags

Trifecta Key with -
Union Rags winning over Gemologist, Alpha, Daddy Nose Best

A Win on Rousing Sermon

It's going to be a hell of a race - the quality in this field might be the best in years. Good luck to everyone

[texas08]

FYi, tvg is not available in Texas. I was gonna try both sites out.

Well twinspires it is. Took me a while to verify my account, they verify your identity through equifax...and those bastards had some old address on my file. Took me a while to figure that out.

Ready to place my bets! Good luck to all!

[BigOrange]

i don't know why, but this cracks me up:

https://twitter.com/#!/AnitaMotion/s...716160/photo/1

[Ruffian]

if on one bet you win $600 and the odds are $300 then you have to fill out a form with your social security number and it gets reported to the IRS.

so if you win a $2 trifecta that pays $600, it gets reported. if you do the $1 trifecta for the same race and you get $300, it doesn't get reported. if you do a $1 trifecta and it pays $600, it gets reported. say you put $20 to win on a 30 to 1 horse and he wins, it does not get reported. You won $600, but the odds of the bet were not atleast 300 to 1.

http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/iw2g.pdf


WOW. I had no idea you were a fan, BigO. I'm going to look at the form (grad school is dominating my face this week), and get back to this thread.

NBC Sports doing a nice job today.

[Ruffian]

also, the past performances are available for free here: http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/dby0505y

please, do not operate under the assumption that i know anything.

If anyone has questions on interpreting the racing form (past performances) ask it here. I love new converts.

[dbecks]

if you want to bet online, twinspires.com is a great site.

This.

[Soul Glo]

the best ever at work. Love the Kentucky Derby, gives me a chance to recall the absolute greatness of Secretariat

Can anyone beat his 1:59.40

[BigOrange]

time for my first bet of the day in the upcoming race (#7)

show bet on the #5 hamazing destiny (currently at 14-1).

[Ruffian]

That was a horse race, kids. Shackleford is $#@!ing game. You got out-classed there, BO.

[BigOrange]

yeah, i liked shackelford and amazombie there, but didn't figure there would be much return on the exacta (didn't see what it returned?) so i decided to go with a price.

my main goal with all these undercard races is just to not blow too much of my derby money.

that said, i see this next races as:

#5 - daisy devine
#9 - la reine lionne
#4 - tapitsfly

thining of doing an exacta box with those 3.

[Ruffian]

BO, that short field will kill your exacta pool. Consider betting a straight win ticket.

[Ruffian]

Jerry Bailey and Gary Stevens walking the entire track, pretending to have mounts whilst talking out loud to themselves is both awesome and hilarious.

[BigOrange]

i love switch. great racehorse. got a place bet on her.

[Ruffian]

I want to put Magical Feeling on my trailer, take her home, and add her to the broodmare band post haste.

BO, do you have the form for the whole card? PM it to me plz baby? <:-)>

[BigOrange]

i just got it from twinspires. think you have to have an account there to get it.

[Ruffian]

Yeah, I have a few accounts, I was just too lazy to go to equibase.

That was a $#@!ing shellacking in the Distaff.