I did a little research (bored at work today) and thought I'd share.
I'm in the Shaggy college pick 'em on Yahoo and was noticing that quite often, an enormous percentage will be on one team or the other. No surprise there but I decided to see how Joe Public (Sixpack? the Plumber?) does.
I looked at all games in which Yahoo pickers were on a team >80%. That's completely arbitrary and when I get time I may play around with it some. Turns out the public isn't just dreadful. For the season, they're 20-25-2. To look at it another way, betting only teams that are picked less than 20% on Yahoo would give you a 25-20-2 mark so far.
From week 3 through 5, the Yahoo public was on a dreadful run, and betting against them would have given you a mark of 15-4-1. The last 3 weeks (6-8.), however, the public has done much better, and you'd be just 5-8-1 betting against them.
Anyway, I was hoping to find a nice angle here, but I doubt 25-20-2 really makes anyone that excited. Just thought I'd share the info since I went to the trouble.
For what it's worth, here are the picks using the 20% hurdle for this week (week 9), as of 2pm on Tuesday:
San Jose St. +7.5 (weeknight home dog)
Kansas State +19