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Thread: Offseason Fantasy Football Talk: STRATEGIES

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    Offseason Fantasy Football Talk: STRATEGIES

    I'm a pretty solid fantasy player, but I'm always looking to improve.
    So this thread is for reflection and sharing. Obviously, we all have a litany of strategies or tips regarding the draft, or managing players, or week-to-week decisions. I'm hoping folks will follow my lead and share just one or two of their strategies that set them apart from other players. To get the ball rolling:

    DON'T TOUCH THE WAIVER WIRE UNTIL WEEK 3. Everybody knows the folks that jump on that week 1 star and drop guys they drafted for that TE who scored 24 points. And we also know that he'll average 3.5 for the next 6 weeks. Staying off the waiver wire does two things: it allows you to potentially jump on a awkward mistake (we had a guy drop Riley Cooper 2 weeks into last season) but more importantly, it ups your waiver wire position so that, when there is that player that EVERYBODY wants, you're in slot 1 to get him.

    So, what other winning strategies are out there?

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    My biggest advice is to pay attention to where players end up and the style of offense they run. And, if their team tends to play in shoot outs or defensive battles. You're not looking to draft the best players necessarily, but rather the ones with the most opportunity to rack up yards and scores. There are definitely players out there that are just okay, but they put up big fantasy numbers. Thus, free agency is huge and coaching changes matter. Draft picks change how coaches alter their game plans. For example, Eric Decker is probably just a mediocre WR, but in Denver he had tons of value. However, now that he is with the Jets I wouldn't touch him unless he was a WR4 or WR5 on my team.

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    In the league im in our waiver order resets every week so waiting doesn't help your waiver position.

    But yeah last year someone drafted Jordan Cameron in the 15th rd but dropped him between the draft and the season starting. Snagged him and even though I sat him week 1 due to being unsure I benefitted greatly because of that pickup.

    Not strategy per se but one guy right now I am putting in my "do not draft" list is Cam. Ankle surgery + losing your LT + $#@!ty WR corps makes him a huge red flag IMO.

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    Check for contract years. If two players are rated equal, go with the one closest to expiring.

    Analyze schedules to avoid bye week meltdowns.
    Analyze schedules to avoid $#@!ty cold, wet weather late in the season.
    Analyze schedules to find crappy offenses and draft the defenses that play against them.

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    Draft production( i.e WR from Denver or Philly) as opposed to that player you really like( I.e Eric Decker has kicked ass for me and now he doesn't have to share touches. Bottom line is that his QB sucks)

    Agree with Snacks on all points, look at contract years or who has been franchised. Look at schedule matchups- who plays Jacksonville twice and who has to face Seattle and the Niners?

  6. #6
    If your trying to find the next big thing at RB... Dont give up on him after 3-4 weeks if he is not getting touches.. You Drafted him with the expectation he could eventually be the man so stick with it.. Worst case he never gets carries and you wasted a late pick... (C Michael)..Best Case and point he becomes a stud and top 10 back the following year (Ball,Stacey)

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    If you're not following Evan Silva on twitter, or keeping an eye on his top 150, you probably should be. I like a lot of his stuff. And I think Raymond Summerlin's top 150 as well. He's also with Rotoworld. http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nf...antasy-top-150

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    Quote Originally Posted by enjay View Post
    If you're not following Evan Silva on twitter, or keeping an eye on his top 150, you probably should be. I like a lot of his stuff. And I think Raymond Summerlin's top 150 as well. He's also with Rotoworld. http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nf...antasy-top-150
    Second the rotoworld guys. Twitter is the best source of information there is especially around game time for sit/starts.

  9. #9
    Drafting

    Research for undervalued players. Good players who had a poor performance last year, Why????? Things like: Injuries to the player or players around the player. QB gets hurt the team WRs numbers usually drop and defenses key on the RBs. 3 OL guys going down can really effect the overall offense production. FF rankings rarely take this into account.

    Teams who revamp their O-Lines. = more points.

    Stay away from normal guys who have had big TD years. Usually flukes.

    As mentioned above: Contract years guys will come to camp in shape and will play through pain to get the new contract.
    Last edited by LonghornXXX; 06-23-2014 at 03:12 PM.

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    Just a few thoughts...

    If I have a top 4 pick, I'm going RB all the way. I would love to be able to draft Shady, Charles, Forte or AP (and probably in that order - PPR). Getting one of the big RBs early in the first round allows you to go with a trusted WR in the 2nd round.

    To me, the 5th - 7th picks are the trickiest. I see a lot of people putting Lacy or Lynch there at the 5th spot. Or you could go Megatron, Graham or even Manning. There's just a lot of options there and you have to pick a road and stay on it.

    As far as TE, if I don't get Graham in the first round, I'm going to wait until the 4th round at earliest in my 12 team league. After Graham, I see a group of 4 TEs that should all be solidly in the 2nd tier - Vernon, Gronk, Cameron & J. Thomas. Gronk is the last out of that group I would want because I just don't trust him to stay on the field. I would reach for Graham (though reaching for Graham would be taking him in the top 6 picks. I'm not going to reach for any of the other four because I don't think there's a big enough gap between them and the 3rd tier. I'd be fine having two TEs and splitting starts between them rather than wasting a 3rd round - or even 4th round - pick on a TE.

    I've never been a fan of taking a QB early. I'll be sticking with that again this year. Someone else can having Manning, Rodgers or Brees. I'll hang out and grab Stafford, Foles, Brady, Cam in the 4th - 5th round or a Cutler, Kaepernick or Rivers in the 6th - 8th.

  11. #11
    I took Manning with the 5th pick in our league last year. He is the biggest reason I won our league. I had a good team otherwise, but he made it unstoppable. If I can get him early again I will. I think I'll take him no matter what slot I am drafting. My league has a 1rb 1wr 2 flex lineup, so not getting an rb 1st round doesn't kill you.

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    Anyone play in a 2 qb league? I'm in one and it changes the draft strategy quite a bit. Trying to separate qbs into tiers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MarkitZero View Post
    Anyone play in a 2 qb league? I'm in one and it changes the draft strategy quite a bit. Trying to separate qbs into tiers.
    I played in a league like that for years... with the parity nowadays getting that number 2 QB can be critical in a 2QB league. Just curious, do y'all do 4 or 6 pts for passing TD's?

    We stopped a few years ago because the commish insisted on 6pt passing TD's and we had 12 QBs gone after the first two rounds.

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    4 pts.

    One thing our league overvalues is kickers. They start bonuses for FG over 20 yards, so almost any FG is worth 3 pts right off the bat. I've told them it's $#@!ed up, but they won't change it.

    They also do a Team Quarterback thingy, so if Hoying gets crumpled and JFF comes in, I would still get all of the points for Cleveland Team QB. I think it's an abomination, but years back, somebody lost a game because their QB went out in the 1st quarter, so they did this bull$#@!. We revoted last year and they wanted to keep it.

    This will be my 4th season since I came back to the league( we started it in 2001, but I moved and it was before the really good internet drafts and whatnot.) My worst finish has been 3rd place, so i can deal with the dumb rules. The mindset carries across into game strategies and it cooks their goose.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Legacy of Kain View Post
    I played in a league like that for years... with the parity nowadays getting that number 2 QB can be critical in a 2QB league. Just curious, do y'all do 4 or 6 pts for passing TD's?

    We stopped a few years ago because the commish insisted on 6pt passing TD's and we had 12 QBs gone after the first two rounds.
    We do 4 pts. Per passing TD. I like it, but it way overvalues guys that I should be able to get in the mid rounds. I'm hoping if I pick early that I can grab an elite rb then get a luck or newton type in round two. Last year I went jamaal and dez in the first two rounds and ended up with $#@!ty qbs (RGKnee and Palmer). Still finished third thanks to some epic trades but I'd prefer to snap up a top 10 qb by round 2 this year. Wr is so deep that I'm a 2 qb league you can get a really good one in round 3

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    In a two QB league - I've been tempted to go Brady/Manning in the past. Just monster numbers and then build an FA/Waiver team around them.

    Hitting the mocks pretty hard the last 48 hours... so far it's looking like
    1-2 Charles/McCoy
    3-5 Peterson/Lacy/Forte
    6-8 D. Thomas/C. Johnson/J. Graham
    9-12 M. Lynch/M. Ball/A. Foster/D. Bryant/A. Green

    Manning is going in Round 2.
    Brees & Rodgers in Round 3.

    And Yahoo is still drafting backup kickers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MarkitZero View Post
    We do 4 pts. Per passing TD. I like it, but it way overvalues guys that I should be able to get in the mid rounds. I'm hoping if I pick early that I can grab an elite rb then get a luck or newton type in round two. Last year I went jamaal and dez in the first two rounds and ended up with $#@!ty qbs (RGKnee and Palmer). Still finished third thanks to some epic trades but I'd prefer to snap up a top 10 qb by round 2 this year. Wr is so deep that I'm a 2 qb league you can get a really good one in round 3
    Luck or Newton in the 2nd round? I would never do that. Especially with a passing TD only being 4pts.

    I fully expect Manning, Brees & Rodgers to go in the first two rounds in my league. Period. And that's with 6pt passing TDs.
    Last edited by enjay; Yesterday at 08:05 PM.

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    My fantasy league used the World Cup to determine draft order. We still had to randomly draw numbers, then we got to pick the team we wanted. I didn't get to pick until 10th and I picked Belgium. So now I'm sitting here with the 6th pick in a 12 team league. We are PPR and start 2 RB & WR, 1 QB, Flex, TE, K, D/ST. 6 points for all TDs, fractional scoring, 5 point bonuses for 300 passing, 100 rushing & receiving.

    The 1 and 2 picks are going to go to two guys who I know will take McCoy and Charles between them. I know that one of the guys who will get the 3rd or 4th pick is going to take Manning, leaving either AP or Forte to the other guy. The guy at 5 is then going to take whichever RB is left between AP & Forte.

    So that leaves me chilling at 6. I don't want Lynch. I think he's a terror, but he's getting older and Christine Michael will cut into his workload this year. So I feel like I have to decide between Lacy, Graham or Calvin.

    Anyone have any mid-July thoughts on this?

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    Quote Originally Posted by enjay View Post
    My fantasy league used the World Cup to determine draft order. We still had to randomly draw numbers, then we got to pick the team we wanted. I didn't get to pick until 10th and I picked Belgium. So now I'm sitting here with the 6th pick in a 12 team league. We are PPR and start 2 RB & WR, 1 QB, Flex, TE, K, D/ST. 6 points for all TDs, fractional scoring, 5 point bonuses for 300 passing, 100 rushing & receiving.

    The 1 and 2 picks are going to go to two guys who I know will take McCoy and Charles between them. I know that one of the guys who will get the 3rd or 4th pick is going to take Manning, leaving either AP or Forte to the other guy. The guy at 5 is then going to take whichever RB is left between AP & Forte.

    So that leaves me chilling at 6. I don't want Lynch. I think he's a terror, but he's getting older and Christine Michael will cut into his workload this year. So I feel like I have to decide between Lacy, Graham or Calvin.

    Anyone have any mid-July thoughts on this?
    I'd take Megatron with that selection, especially with PPR and bonuses for 100+ receiving.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Greg Davis Apologist View Post
    I'd take Megatron with that selection, especially with PPR and bonuses for 100+ receiving.
    Agreed

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    Quote Originally Posted by enjay View Post
    My fantasy league used the World Cup to determine draft order. We still had to randomly draw numbers, then we got to pick the team we wanted. I didn't get to pick until 10th and I picked Belgium. So now I'm sitting here with the 6th pick in a 12 team league. We are PPR and start 2 RB & WR, 1 QB, Flex, TE, K, D/ST. 6 points for all TDs, fractional scoring, 5 point bonuses for 300 passing, 100 rushing & receiving.

    The 1 and 2 picks are going to go to two guys who I know will take McCoy and Charles between them. I know that one of the guys who will get the 3rd or 4th pick is going to take Manning, leaving either AP or Forte to the other guy. The guy at 5 is then going to take whichever RB is left between AP & Forte.

    So that leaves me chilling at 6. I don't want Lynch. I think he's a terror, but he's getting older and Christine Michael will cut into his workload this year. So I feel like I have to decide between Lacy, Graham or Calvin.

    Anyone have any mid-July thoughts on this?
    I'm sitting at 7 in my $$ league and dreading taking J. Graham there. I love him as a FF player... but then I'm gonna be sweating bullets that Peyton or Demaryius Thomas (ha ha, right) falls to me in Round 2, because I'm not taking a $#@!ty RB there.

  22. #22
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    I appreciate the recommendation.

    Here's another thought. Has anyone done, or seen, a pre-draft trade? If I can move from 6th to 3rd for the first round only, what would be a fair value to give up? Keep in mind that this guy I would trade with is well aware that he would still get Manning with the 6th pick.

  23. #23
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    Here's something that has worked well for me. I play in an Auction league that is really deep and we start 3 WR/TE. You usually spend a lot of money on your top guys and need to find some sleeper WRs for like $1 to fill out your roster or maybe even take a starting spot if you sprung for a couple of studs elsewhere. It also works for standard drafts, of course.

    Preseason matters. That's where chemistry sets in for QBs/WRs. Before I had kids and was a bigger NFL honk I would watch a lot of the games - at least the first halves anyway. Look for how many targets guys get, and rookies/FAs that starting QBs look to often. I wind up with some good sleepers every year that aren't on anyone else's radar. My biggest coup was getting Wes Welker for $1 after the Dolphins cut him because I saw how often Brady was looking his way in preseason.

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