sushi, your post sounds logical but we all know that's never how these things end. minimal damage in the short run, promises and more lube issued to future.
sushi, your post sounds logical but we all know that's never how these things end. minimal damage in the short run, promises and more lube issued to future.
They will change the rules when they can't change the game.
http://www.businessinsider.com/858-s...ng-cacs-2012-3ATHENS, Greece (AP) — Greece on Friday announced that it had managed to convince a high proportion of its private creditors to accept steep losses on their bonds, staving off an imminent default and paving the way for the release of funds from international rescue loans.
The Finance Ministry said 85.8 percent of private investors holding its Greek-law bonds had signed up to the deal, and that it aimed to use legislation forcing the remaining holdouts to participate. It extended the deadline for holders of foreign-law bonds, of whom 69 percent have so far signed up, until March 23.
If they have to enforce the CACs (which is apparently part of it), there is no way ISDA gets away with saying its not a credit event. If they do, they have just invalidated the entire CDS market. I would rather not get into whether the CDS market is good or bad. The fact is its a huge multitrillion OTC market, that people do rely on for releasing capital (hedge etc) and that will have repercussions in riskier credit names if there is no legit way to hedge.
Some kind of litigation wouldnt be a huge surprise...
They approved use of CACs. That is by definition not a "voluntary" swap. This should by definition trigger CDS payouts. We wait for ISDA to make a judgement.
This by the way is a default. I think they default again within within 12 to 18 months
W/I bonds quoted are indicated with a bid around 25/27. due in 2023. I can get more quotes if needed but this says it all.
these are the NEW bonds.
so when's the euro going to finally tank? I have a euro denominated payment to make with my monopoly USD soon, dammit!
ISDA ruled the restructuring (ahem default) was indeed a credit event and it will trigger CDS
Last edited by froghorn717; 03-09-2012 at 02:06 PM.
frog - are there going to be banks who wrote CDS that cannot fulfill their obligations?
I'm a noob with CDS, but $3Bn is the amount of bonds holders that did not agree to the haircut right? Isn't the nature of CDS such that you can "buy fire insurance on someone else's house?"
Spain......And Greece, a.k.a. both tacos.
Last Friday, Poul Thomsen, the head of the IMF’s Troika team stated that Greece would not meet its targets once again and that he was not sure if Greece would fulfill any of the conditions that had been prescribed by the IMF. Later on the same day the head of Pasok and the former Finance Minister did a TV interview in Athens where he stated that Greece had not emerged from the crisis and that it could still exit the Euro and return to the Drachma. Then in a rejection of everything the Troika had demanded so that Greece could receive additional funds he said that Greece would not accept any new taxes nor will they cut salaries or wages from the present levels. So there you have it; they got the money and now “ta-ta and bye-bye and a little more Ouzo if you please.”
It won't be long before the Euro police crack down on those barter markets.
Thinking longer term (years, maybe decades) this is the first BIG social contract mediated by government that will fall when the masses realize that fair technology can replace unfair government.
With the chaotic outcome of the election, the bankers' preferred parties (New Democracy and PASOK) both took huge hits. Although ND got the most votes, they failed to form a coalition. That means the #2 vote-getter has the next shot to build a coalition. In this case that means Syrizia - a hard socialist anti-bailout party.
In reaction to the rise of Syrizia and the failure of their puppets to retain control of the government, the European bankers are raising new threats against Greece. For the first time, they are speaking openly of Greece leaving the Eurozone. Of course that's a rather empty threat. It would destroy the Euro if Greece followed by other countries were to leave the currency. Rather, it would be to Greece's advantage to leave the Eurozone and repudiate their debt.
We won't get sued, they don't even have advertising on that site.
I am reversing my position. This looks like the real deal. June looks like the timeframe. In any case, only 30% of votes went to austerity parties. There is a real lack of action by the rest of europe now. They aren't sounding like they'll act. Scheuble basically said $#@! 'em.Budget revenues have reportedly dropped by 10.2 percent in April compared to the same month in 2011, according to provisional figures the Finance Ministry is studying.
The election period did nothing to help state receipts as the tax collection and monitoring mechanism traditionally relaxes ahead of polls, and did so again this year despite the crisis.
Value-added tax revenues declined by 13.5 percent year-on-year, while customs takings fell by 12 percent. The drop in VAT revenues points to the considerable cash flow problems that enterprises are facing, but was aggravated by the election period.
Total revenues before tax returns were 13.4 percent smaller than in April 2011.
In the first four months of the year, the revenue decline amounted to just 0.5 percent, but this was thanks to the extraordinary property tax tagged onto electricity bills that was imposed this winter for the first time. Property taxes posted growth of 1,793 percent compared to the same four months of 2011.
It seems they'll get their payment tomorrow, but that will probably be the last one. I think the eurofascists will move on to Spain, but Spain is 2.5 the size of Greece, and then Italy, which is twice Spain's size.
Short the euro, buy 30 year treasuries, stock up on things and listen for the giant whoosh sound coming out of europe. And yes, I totally stayed at Holiday Inn Express last night.
Last edited by TheTexasHammer; 05-09-2012 at 06:32 PM.
I've said from the beginning that the bailout is for the benefit of the big European banks - not Greece. Today's action is further evidence of that. Despite rejection of the troika's demands, they agreed to hand over another E5.2 billion today. The double-speak is hillarious and amazing:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ins-talks.html“Greece has to be aware that there is no alternative to the agreed consolidation program if it wants to remain a member of the euro zone,” European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen was quoted as saying in an interview with Germany’s Handelsblatt newspaper published yesterday.
For now, bailout money is still flowing to Greece. The European Financial Stability Facility yesterday confirmed that a 5.2 billion-euro tranche will be released by the end of June, with 4.2 billion euros disbursed today. The remaining 1 billion euros will be released depending on Greece’s financing needs.
The battle now is to convince the markets that there is no possibility of Spain or Italy being forced out of the Eurozone. Obviously it's quite possibly though by no means inevitable. But once the possibility is on the table, there is no way to control interest rates. The risk of implied default from re-denomination of bonds in the national currency would force rates to skyrocket.
they were never going to hold back that tranche - the ECB is getting about 3.3bln of that payment.
so basically the capital flow goes like this
EFSF ----> Greece ----> ECB (hahahahahahahahah)
see #7 and #8 (5/18/12 maturity)...yeah those maturities are completely owned by the ECB
Last edited by froghorn717; 05-10-2012 at 11:39 AM.
I had these bookmarked from a while back, but its relevant if you give a flip about the future of Greece.
I should really have posted them in the thread I started about how you need both a chest film and a stool sample in order to start a business in Greece. (http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_429208)
The island development bill is particularly striking. The environmentalists are in charge, and prevented a bill from passage that would have allowed development on 1% of the surface are of some islands, up from 0.2%. I'm guessing 0.2% is limiting enough that you simply cannot develop anything like a hotel or anything else of value.
The gold story could have created 1,800 jobs. Unfortunately, the project has been blocked by anarchists and environmentalists.
In both of these cases you have lefties of various sorts (which brand of lefty is uninteresting to me) who oppose simple measures which could have eased the crisis. In both cases, they were successfully able to block development.
I can only conclude that the Greeks want to go broke and be poor. I mean, you can't make money in greece more easily than either (a) gold, or (b) tourism. They simply don't want to help themselves.
The powers that be have decided that today is not a good day (for the Euro) to die. Full repayments of €450 million.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c5ded...#axzz1uw7dmHAaGreece is set to repay fully a €450m bond that matures on Tuesday after failing to reach a deal with holdout investors including private banks and a US-based hedge fund.
The bond was issued under UK law unlike the €177bn of Greek-law sovereign debt held by private sector creditors which was restructured in March with investors taking a 75 per cent loss on their holdings.
meanwhile here is the price action for a series in the newly swapped 10yr
since the restructure (default):
last 10 trading days:
remember the further from par the more likely the market believes they will default (again in this case).
that would be a price of about 15.215% of Par (which is an easy way to think of it) with ylds somewhere over 23%
they are not long for the EU (same thoughts ive held since starting this thread....Spain/Italy/Portugal will watch what happens to Greece and they wont be very far behind)
Last edited by froghorn717; 05-15-2012 at 08:10 AM.
They are getting deep down into the pain now.
That Euro is gradually sinking like a rock... *sniffle* (not really)
i am going to invest in infrastructure. gotta get the metaxas line up and going again.
seven $#@!ing star bitches
Can I ask the experts here something? What do you believe is priced into the market? I know that's a difficult answer knowing how full regard this thing can get but in general terms do you think Greece exiting the Eurozone is baked in? Greece and Spain?
Central bank head George Provopoulos told him savers withdrew at least 700 million euros on Monday, the president told party chiefs.
"Mr Provopoulos told me there was no panic, but there was great fear that could develop into a panic," the minutes quoted the president as saying.
"Withdrawals and outflows by 4:00 pm when I called him exceeded 600 million euros and reached 700 million euros," he said. "He expects total outflows of about 800 million euros."
Greeks have been steadily withdrawing funds from banks for months, and there has so far been no sign of queues at banks in Athens.
It certainly looks like the Greek people are expecting a withdrawal from the EU and a monetary devaluation.
Today's investor pool is fat, dumb and slow. It's what happens to a herd that's been protected to the point of being coddled for so long (since 1987 really). It's a herd of sheep instead of a herd of gazelles - no survival instinct. They are absolutely counting on their protectors (the central banks) to ward off all threats without any effort on their own part. Sadly, this article represents the thought process of a big chunk of Wall Street:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ger...ink=MW_popularThe Greeks won’t accept austerity anymore. The Germans won’t give them any more money if they don’t take the harsh medicine that is being prescribed. Game over. The exit signs are flashing red.
There’s just one snag with that analysis. It isn’t going to happen. Germany will realize the risks involved, eat its words and come up with a mega bailout. Instead of a ‘Grexit’ we’ll see a “Grashall Plan” — as a Marshall Plan for Greece will quickly be dubbed — to reflate its economy and keep the euro staggering on for a couple more years, at least.
A large contingent is absolutely counting on Greece being bailed out by Germany under any and all circumstances. This is just delusional thinking but it avoids the need to consider any actions in self-defense. While the scenario he lays out is a slight possibility, it's not even likely - much less certain. Far more likely is continued dribbles of support that are just barely sufficient to prevent immediate default.
The comparison to the Marshall Plan is a horrible joke. The US helped Europe rebuild its productive capacity. This pathetic plan he lays out is merely a blueprint to subsidize greek consumption on Germany's dime. It's wish fulfillment to think that some powerful outside agency is going to come in and magically make everything better. That's really what he's saying here. It's the same kind of con-game propaganda that had Warren Buffett buying half the companies in the S&P 500 as the Street spread rumors in an effort to stave off the collapse of stocks in 2008.
because of the perceived support for Greece and finite resources. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the EUR/USD rally as well as Spain/Portugal/Italy initially when Greece leaves the EUR. That will fade though. Where we are in price in our markets will make a big difference as to what happens here…I can completely see the FED doing what the FED does best and flooding the system with liquidity.
speak of the devil
Chatter is the ECB has stopped some monetary policy operations to certain greek banks...
Last edited by froghorn717; 05-16-2012 at 10:11 AM.
"Let's go USD/Euro parity" *clap clap clap clap clap*
yeah, the logical side of me says greeks will reject austerity and no way can the germans continue to bail them out but until that happens i'm going to stay in the market.
This guy will likely be the head of the new Greek government:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18094714n a BBC interview, Mr Tsipras said if the "disease of austerity destroys Greece, it will spread to the rest of Europe". Banks were profiting at the expense of thousands of Europeans - in Spain and Italy, as well as Greece - left in poverty and hardship, he said.
"Therefore the European leadership and especially Mrs Merkel need to stop playing poker with the lives of people," Mr Tsipras said.
Syriza came second in inconclusive elections on 6 May, in which no party won a majority or was able to form a coalition.
Syriza refused to join any government which would continue with the austerity measures demanded by the EU and International Monetary Fund (IMF) in return for a bailout of 130bn euros ($170bn; £105bn).
Today, a homeless guy in my convenience store asked me for $20. I told him I'd give him $10 if he didn't spend it on drugs or alcohol. We settled on $5. He used the $5 to buy a beer and a pack of smokes from me.
Last edited by The Missing Link; 05-16-2012 at 04:38 PM.
JPM doesnt think risk markets have priced in "Grexit"
I don't understand anything about the Euro Crisis, it's so confusing. In that respect I feel like a Politician.
It's too late..
Spain's Bankia is reportedly suffering from bank runs as well.
Some official came out and said re: bankia bank run, "its seasonal"
Last edited by froghorn717; 05-17-2012 at 09:55 AM.
Seasonal bank runs? Just when you think you've heard it all...
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