Tropical Depression Ten

[phdhorn]

Wind 0-3000 ft. San Antonio 37-41

Austin getting gusts now about 15, center is just SW of San Antonio. It's gonna get windy here.

Next 3 hours should be very interesting... one spiral arm is clobbering ECentral Tx right now, Austin is in a little dry air pocket (well, less rainy air as it were), then the core of the storm should approach, coldest cloud tops and pouring. Where it goes will make 3-4 inches difference.

Getting a little more than interesting...

[txgirl123]

I have been informed that there is a 100% chance of rainboot sightings on campus today.

[Snow Dog]

Been raining pretty good all day in Austin. Winds are really picking up now. We're all gonna die.

[SubliminalHorn]

I have been informed that there is a 100% chance of rainboot sightings on campus today.

Shit, I saw girls walking around them downtown the other day when it briefly rained in the morning

[GSU&UT]

I have been informed that there is a 100% chance of rainboot sightings on campus today.

That and everyone having an umbrella. Normal people like me wearing a coat/jacket with a hood like me have to fucking dodge all these eye-gouging weapons.

[miguelito]

right in the eye now.

[Orange&White]

This is the best example so far of the power of the Austin weather IUD/Force Field.

Watching the eye skate to the west and the first band skate to the east on either side of Austin is pretty fucking amazing.

[SubliminalHorn]

Looks like the eye is passing pretty much right over where my parents live

[skipperj]

This is the best example so far of the power of the Austin weather IUD/Force Field.

Watching the eye skate to the west and the first band skate to the east on either side of Austin is pretty fucking amazing.

Well, it's fucking pouring out now. But, yeah, I was watching that develop and saying "you have GOT to be kidding me."

[LonghornJones]

phd, is there any chance of that dry slot filling in this afternoon?

[skipperj]

It looks like the weather stations around me (SW Austin) on wunderground are showing anything from 1.7 to almost three inches today. I took mine down a couple of weeks ago to paint the deck, of course, and haven't put it back up yet.

It looks I'm getting the north side of the San Antonio action, and the dry spots are moving through Central/North Austin.

Posted again for reference from the OP on page 1:

[txgirl123]

That and everyone having an umbrella. Normal people like me wearing a coat/jacket with a hood like me have to fucking dodge all these eye-gouging weapons.

The small, tote-size umbrellas aren't so bad.

The giant ones that are 3-4ft wide are nothing short of obnoxious, as well as hazardous to pedestrians everywhere...

[SubliminalHorn]

Rain really starting to come down here in far east Austin....hold on to your butts

[tx 3 putt]

victoria is very flooded, lot of standing water.

all the SA runoff is going to wreck shop when it hits us in a couple of days

[gsoda3]

gonna be awesome tubing this weekend.

[phdhorn]

phd, is there any chance of that dry slot filling in this afternoon?

Yes, I think so.

Just got back from a few lunch errands, checking the data, the core (former "eyewall") of the storm is now again tracking NNW over Boerne. This is good for Austin, bad for areas west (Fredericksburg, Blanco, Llano, etc.). That core still contains a lot of energy and convection, i.e. lots of "red" radar rain. Look for 5-7 inches in some spots in this path.

Austin should be spared the brunt of that (we're a little too far east) but if the thing tracks even 10-15 miles NE we could be back in it again (areas of San Antonio have gotten 7"). I think we'll be fine and in the mostly green and yellow areas, 1-3 more inches today.

As for the "dry spot", this is the natural space of drier air between bands. The spot is filling in now, and as the TS tracks NW, it'll draw up a lot of moisture from the Gulf and I would expect the current pattern to hold up well into tomorrow daytime (noon or so). Although the storm "proper" will be far NW of us (near Ft. Worth) by tomorrow afternoon, the drawing in of the mositure will result in less widespread but more intense rain (when the sun breaks through and lights it up). Could have some real bucketgushers tomorrow.

This storm tracks juuuuuust a bit west to put Austin in its crosshairs (well, as of now, we'll see if anything weird happens next few hours). The center should be exactly west of Austin by 4-5 p.m. or so. Until this happens we're at risk for some good flareups. After this we'll see what kind of drier air gives us a few hrs. break.

I've got 3.6 inches at my house since about 1 a.m. last night. Thankfully Hermine is wearing track shoes, if not it would be pretty awful in Texas today...

ETA: This thing is really taking its time dying down... this is a very strong storm and I'm surprised at how strongly its circulation is holding up... San Antonio reported a few gusts of 64 mph about an hour ago! That's almost what it was at landfall! (I'm still going to be interested in seeing upon further analysis if Hermine made it to a Cat 1 when hitting the coast... they revise these things once they get some data within a week or so..)

[Somnio]

It's been raining all fucking day in Austin. I'm not sure what some of you are talking about with the "dry slot" and "force field".

[skipperj]

It's been raining all fucking day in Austin. I'm not sure what some of you are talking about with the "dry slot" and "force field".

yeah, I'm in SW Austin, and it has been raining 100% of the day since I got up at 6:30. Sometimes, freaking hard, like right now. Closest Wunderground station to me shows 3.55" today.

[phdhorn]

It's been raining all fucking day in Austin. I'm not sure what some of you are talking about with the "dry slot" and "force field".

Meh, if you don't know, don't worry about it. It hasn't been raining in a lot of Travis County (well, much beyond a drizzle) at various points.

Looks like we're getting the outer core ("outer eyewall" leftovers) coming in now. Lots of pouring. The "inner eyewall" is going through Bandera and Kendall Cos. That's where the real wind and huge rains are (hope it stays out there). Wind picking up again here... next 2-3 hours... should do it for the core...

[bigup2dahorns]

phd, what is your prediction for DFW area?

[skipperj]

phd, what is your prediction for DFW area?

If you're talking about Oct. 2, the prediction is pain.

[ludosc]

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
north central Johnson County in north central Texas...
south central Tarrant County in north central Texas...

* until 315 PM CDT

* at 251 PM CDT... storm spotters and Doppler radar observed a
developing tornado near Briaroaks... moving north at 20 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
Burleson around 300 PM CDT...
Crowley around 305 PM CDT...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Move to an interior bathroom... closet... or hallway on the lowest
floor of your building. Cover yourself with blankets... pillows... or a
mattress for protection.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT Tuesday evening
for eastern Texas.


Lat... Lon 3263 9747 3263 9727 3246 9722 3246 9741
time... Mot... loc 1951z 160deg 22kt 3249 9732

this might get me off my ass at work today...not likely though...

[phdhorn]

phd, what is your prediction for DFW area?

Big, I think you might be getting the worst of it right now... those bands contain a lot of energy and the tornado watches/warning, setc. are proably the peak of it for you. I think it'll be pretty much what you're getting now into tomorrow morning... big squalls, followed by longer periods of light rain. My guess 2-3 more inches.

The only thing left for N. Texas is where the remnants of this core tracks. Right now the track is taking it far enough west that you guys won't get the full blast of wind/rain... maybe more like Mineral Wells is in the bulseye. But if Hermine goes any to the NE you could get it. My guess is it'll stay well west of you.

The bad and good news is that this storm is still wound up and packing a lot of punch! Winds haven't diminshed that much from landfall. The bad news is that those in the path are getting a real jolt (50 mph winds, very heavy rain). The good news is that because this storm is so stron and is taking its time in breaking up (no mountains to help shatter it as well as its inherent energy), the "severe" area of the eye is still very compact and concentrated... but affecting a narrower path.

My guess is that this will be heavy rain for you but nothing damaging, some minor flooding of low areas, creeks, but not much else,... forthnately this storm is just cruising northward too fast to dump Allison-like rains on most of us. I've seen 8 inches max in one spot so far, not bad considering...

Just saw that it's blowing in Blanco (only 30 miles from me) to the tune of 40-60 mph gusts! That narrow core is still packing a lot of wind, now some 400 miles after landfall! Damn glad it tracked west of me!

Texas missed a potentially bad bullet... due to the speed and track of this...

[LonghornJones]

austin is about to get hammered.

[Duck of Death]

nice pouring rain most of the day here in houston metro.

[skipperj]

austin is about to get hammered.

About to? I always drink when it rains, and it's been raining all day...

[Snow Dog]

^
I like the cut of your jib.

[bigup2dahorns]

thx phd. i'm supposed to fly back to DFW on wednesday afternoon and trying to determine how it's looking

[Used2b]

Tornadoes anyone?

[phdhorn]

thx phd. i'm supposed to fly back to DFW on wednesday afternoon and trying to determine how it's looking

My guess: bumpy descent, but no real problem... rainy, breezy day.

[Duck of Death]

i see its a depression now

[Staboned]

i see its a depression now

whatever it is it doesn't seem to be slowing. east side austin here at 7.30pm. i would guess at least 3 inches alone after 5pm here. serious shit, this storm.

[Dewey Oxburger]

I am so fucking tired of this storm, enough already.

[Duck of Death]

"it never rains, it never rains!!...a few hours of rain later..."when will this rain stop? i'm sick of it!"

[pmg]

"it never rains, it never rains!!...a few hours of rain later..."when will this rain stop? i'm sick of it!"

Not me; I'm lovin' it.

[SubliminalHorn]

Tornado warning for Austin---mostly north into Round Rock and Pflugerville. Keep safe out there, assholes.

[LonghornJones]

still more bands forming south of austin. Gonna be a long night of heavy rain.

[TenaciousTgarden]

we have a fucking lake in the backyard of our new house. 6 more inches until the lake reaches the siding of the house. Booooooooooooo.

[Dewey Oxburger]

It's been more than a few hours of rain, but I get your point.

[Randy Marsh]

Fuck this. I hate walking the mile to class in the rain.

Fuck you. hen that bitch hit SA hard enough to shut down most of the city I had to PUSH mostly uphill through that shit for a solid 10 fucking mins... with no umbrella... sitting on my fucking book and notes to keep them from getting wet. THEN I had to go to class for the next 4 hours.

I got into the building and it looked like I had jumped into a pool with my clothes on.

Got home and the power was off in my apartment.... it didn't come on for another 2 hours.

[phdhorn]

I think this last batch will be it, then it'll quiet down for the night. Storm is picking up speed, moveing now at 20 mph NNW. That'll get us out of the outer core by 10 pm. or so, then hopefully a little quieter for Austin.

[Steel Shank]

very intense, this storm

[Armybrat]

3.8 inches of rain so far today up here in Brushy Creek just west of Round Rock.

[Duck of Death]

brat, i think my grandparents moved near you a few months ago. they are in mayfield ranch.

[hopkinsnhorns]

I don't mind the rain. I'm hoping it washes all the dog shit off grounds at my property. Stupid lazy fucking dog owners...

[Used2b]

We almost died in Wilco. Yay for cute rainboots though!

[hayden_horn]

south austin fixing to get fucking WHACKED by a line of red. can't tell if it's going to just slide by or fuck us up. either way, i hope the rain abates at teagarden's place. shit, they just moved in!

[Armybrat]

brat, i think my grandparents moved near you a few months ago. they are in mayfield ranch.

That's a couple miles northeast of me off 3406.

I'm closer to 620.

[Staboned]

south austin fixing to get fucking WHACKED by a line of red. can't tell if it's going to just slide by or fuck us up. either way, i hope the rain abates at teagarden's place. shit, they just moved in!

i think she is rolling into town on the slide. should make this glass of wine go down easier. or at least more interesting than the $6.99 price indicates.

[hayden_horn]

i think she is rolling into town on the slide. should make this glass of wine go down easier. or at least more interesting than the $6.99 price indicates.

bitch is on top of me now. heavy rain, but no real outstanding light show. but it looks like i'll be getting hit for a good amount of time, judging by the radar. long line of red, heading just barely north-northeast and i'm on the east side of it.

please power stay on.