week 2 lines

[BigOrange]

lots of big games this weekend, here are some that stand out to me.

thursday:
mississippi state +2 (i like auburn here, but fuck its a thursday night home dog)

saturday:
georgia tech -14
florida state +8
michigan +3.5
miami +9
byu (pick)
tech -24.5
stanford -6

[dgvillere]

Its not CFB but NFL saw the Colts are anywhere from -1.5 to -3 against Houston which sounds very good to me, Houston is traditionally horrible against them plus Cushing out on defense

[neonmoon44]

thursday:
mississippi state +2 (i like auburn here, but fuck its a thursday night home dog)

saturday:
georgia tech -14
florida state +8
michigan +3.5
miami +9
byu (pick)
tech -24.5
stanford -6

I like most of those line.

I also like LSU -10 @ Vandy

I really want to bet on Auburn -2, but the home dog has me worried

[bularry]

I'm on a few lamb killers early; I love UH - 19' against UTEP. UH in a revenge spot here, at home with a weird start time. sets up nicely, I think. I also like a&M to continue to try to impress anyone looking at box scores and beat La Tech by enough to cover their number.

finally, I don't see penn st. hanging with Bama, @ Bama, with a frosh QB, so I like the chalk here to cover pretty easily.


I'm opposite you guys on New Mexico. A home dog getting 24' against a tech team that didnt' look like all that against smu? I'll take it.

[JimbAround]

I had a horrible week last week, but I like Bama, FSU and GA Tech -14 @ Kansas.

[hullabelew]

All for 1 unit.
Aub -1.5 (Homedog be damned.)
Ga Tech -14 (KU scored 3 against So. Dakota St)
Ga + 3. Actually think they win outright, but 3 is a lot
FSU +7.5
Thinking about: BYU getting one.
Also, that LSU line at -10 is intriguing.

[hullabelew]

Found LSU -9.5 on Bookmaker, so added that. Vandy might not win a game this year, but this game, this early in the year, before Lester has time to shit his pants, seems like a win. Vandy lost at home by 2 to Northwestern last weekend. Surely LSU is better than NW by more than 7.5 points.

Also looking at NM against Tech along with bularry. Need to look at that some more.

[bluto]

ooooook, some notes looking around today:

these lines are f'n crazy this wk. a few of them <ohio state and gtech> had SEVEN point swings in the first hour of being open on various sites. just crazy.
now on to the actual games:
--love okie st by two td's, i think ppl are really selling weeden short. i think he's a total gamer. saw him get a few snaps last yr in real time and he looked better than robinson. he continued to impress last wk, albeit vs a shit wazzu... but still looked strong. kendall hunter looked like the best player in the conference last wk. (80% of public money on okie st)
--i think stanford could be a money train this year, giving ucla 6 or 7. will most likely play it, just LOVE luck and harbaugh
--not going to play kansas/gtech. yes kansas lost to ndsu, but they held htem to 160 yds despite giving them the ball with 3 turnovers and two missed fg's. 14 is quite a few for a team like gtech to cover with how fast their games are.
--miss st... home dog thurs night, need anything else?
--florida state outright (65% of money is on fsu plus pts)
--byu over air force... byu basically owns air force. only reason not to play is for look ahead factor.
--washington by 14 or w/e over cuse... LOOOOOOONG road trip, shit cuse team, home opener for washington. 2nd straight roadie for cuse. prolly wont end up playing
--texas first half 17... they were pissed off w/ the intensity last wk and i think they come out very strong. home opener and a knowing what wyoming is going to run on offense = zero points for them in the first half unless gift/crazy shit. plus you probably wont see any extended drives by them soaking up the clock due to their style.
--usc by 19 hosting virginia... road trip and i think usc D performs well vs a 'normal' offense. we know how the usc offense is this year, wow. play will depend on how day goes.
das all for now, all i have right now is a 3 tm 10 pt teaser where tosu and bama have to win outright and okie st has to win by 4+

[hullabelew]

Bluto, thanks for posting your thoughts. I was looking at that 1H line on Texas as well. Stanford's weak defense scares me but I have no idea what UCLA has on offense. Also really like the Luck/Harbaugh combination but will probably stay away from this one.

Someone built this spreadsheet last year and I still have it up if anyone wants something to track their picks. It should make you save the file and shouldn't open it up in the browser. Let me know if you run in to any trouble or have any questions.
Spreadsheet

[hullabelew]

On the Ga Tech/Kansas line, Torbush is their defensive coordinator.

[seeingdouble]

thursday:
mississippi state +2 (i like auburn here, but fuck its a thursday night home dog)

Thursday night home dog special!!! I am with you on liking Auburn but I learned two years ago to never go against a Thurs home dog

[shakahorn]

I think avoiding the Horns is gonna be a good strategy all year. It's just shaping up as one of those 6-7 ATS kinda seasons. If anything, bet the under as long as we're still trying to establish the run game, which I think we'll keep doing until we lose a game. This week I have our game as o/u 49 which is a good number but barring any fluke plays like last week, I think the under is solid. I don't see Wyoming putting up more than 10 and I don't see us putting up more than 39.

[The Tower]

i know it is on thursday night but i think auburn dominates. right now, it is -1.

that's almost unreal.

[spystud13]

Auburn game down to a pick now on my book!

[bluto]

i just took miss st over 27'

[spystud13]

Auburn game down to a pick now on my book!

Back to -1 in that short time...

[hullabelew]

spystud, who do you use?

[bluto]

that dropped pick 6 by msu killed my over 27' it looks like.

[bluto]

yup, standard SEC bullshit offense tonight.

one thing i forgot to note above... 75% of overs hit last week.... unnnnnnnnnnreal.

[hullabelew]

2 and 3 years ago, the Thurs home dog was a sure winner. Even last year, it did well, but I'm wondering if the Thursday night home dog thing is now getting found out. I'm still treading lightly on them but it looks like 1) the line is being adjusted and 2) the home dogs may be starting to think it is a done deal.

I also took NO at +5.5 with a buddy. We bet 3 or 4 NFL games a week and when someone gets up by 5 units, you have to pay off. I was mostly watching the college game but can't believe NO didn't play better on the offensive side given they were playing at home.

[seeingdouble]

I decided to lay off the Thursday night home dog because I liked Auburn. Glad I stayed away. Still managed to lose on the over the Saints/Vikings game.

[neonmoon44]

I loved that Auburn squeezed by and spurned the Thursday home dog. I don't know how Auburn didn't win by 14. Cam Newton is a gamer.

Tonight,

I like West Virginia -13.

The UH line scares me a little, might stay away, or take the under. 74 is a lot .

[seeingdouble]

Any thoughts on Houston -21 and West Virginia -13? Leaning towards the favorites, but don't have a strong feeling one way or another. Houston played a cupcake last week and removed the starters (or at least QB) at half. How is UTEP's defense?

Marshall got killed by OSU, but OSU is a top 10 team. West Virginia looks solid from their stats but that was against Coastal Carolina. Probably end up putting 1 unit on Hou and WVA.

[bluto]

WV hasn't scored more than 35 pts since wk 1 2008 vs villanova. how CRAZY is that stat

[spystud13]

LOT of people were either loving or hating Garrett Hartley last night!

[neonmoon44]

well WVU sucks balls.

Anyone know about UH line?

[spystud13]

At the risk of putting the complete kiss of death on them, Hou -20.5 sounds pretty good to me...

[bluto]

uh/utep over for me... UH is good for 50+ pts and utep will squeeze out 20-30. i have it parlayed w/ this first game's under, so i might be able to hedge out of it and pick up a unit or break even. however, an OT or two would bone me good here.

[spystud13]

Damn bluto, that is the all-time hex you put on yourself!! Wasn't it 21-6 when you typed that?!

[spystud13]

What a fucking colossal choke job by Marshall!!!!


And bluto hangs on!!

[bluto]

<taking bow>

but ya, i hedged the 4th q of uh game. i turned off marshall game in OT b/c it was effectively over. actually called the uh/utep game spot on though.

[spystud13]

At the risk of putting the complete kiss of death on them, Hou -20.5 sounds pretty good to me...

Yeah, unfortunately I didn't take my own advice & took under 75.5 instead... Basically, I suck!

[UTEX90]

lots of big games this weekend, here are some that stand out to me.

thursday:
mississippi state +2 (i like auburn here, but fuck its a thursday night home dog)

saturday:
georgia tech -14
florida state +8
michigan +3.5
miami +9
byu (pick)
tech -24.5
stanford -6

most of these look pretty good but for some reason I like tOSU to cover what is now 8 against miami and ND to handle mich.
I also think Nebraska covers the big number today 28 against Idaho.

[hullabelew]

Well, I ended up backing out of the Ga Tech/Kansas and Ga/So. Carolina. Thank the beer gods for those two. SC running game is NASTY.

[hockeydude]

09/11 10:21 AM 136572930- 1 5 team Parlay Won $15.00 $375.00 Football NCAA - South Carolina Gamecocks -3 -110 for Game (Won)
Football NCAA - Iowa Hawkeyes -13 -110 for Game (Won)
Football NCAA - Oklahoma Sooners -6½ -110 for Game (Won)
Football NCAA - Oregon Ducks -12½ -110 for Game (Won)
Football NCAA - Washington Huskies -13 -110 for Game (Won)

09/11 10:19 AM 136572686- 1 6 team Parlay Won $11.00 $252.02 Football NCAA - Florida Gators Team Total O 33 -115 for Game (Won)
Football NCAA - Idaho Vandals Team Total O 13 -115 for Game (Won)
Football NCAA - LSU Tigers Team Total O 27 -115 for Game (Cancelled)
Football NCAA - Iowa Hawkeyes -13 -110 for Game (Won)
Football NCAA - Michigan Wolverines +3 -115 for Game (Won)
Football NCAA - Washington Huskies Team Total O 31 -115 for Game (Won)

09/11 09:11 AM 136566471- 1 4 team Parlay Lost $18.26 0 Football NCAA - South Carolina Gamecocks -3 -110 for Game (Won)
Football NCAA - Iowa Hawkeyes -14½ -110 for Game (Won)
Football NCAA - Oregon Ducks -12½ -110 for Game (Won)
Football NCAA - Texas Longhorns Team Total O 38½ -130 for Game (Loss)

Good lord.. I never thought the Longhorns would be the downfall of an otherwise amazing day.... *sigh*

[spystud13]

Damn, nice hits!! LSU did you a helluva favor in the 4th though...

[hockeydude]

Damn, nice hits!! LSU did you a helluva favor in the 4th though...

Not only that, but Idaho got a 98 yard drive against Nubb on their last possession.. it was meant to be! :)

[spystud13]

Yeah, I don't look at team totals often enough... That needs to change.

[seeingdouble]

Picked the wrong games to bet two units on: BYU and Oklahoma St. Started off pretty bad but slowly picked up.

Won on Hawaii, Iowa, LSU, Alabama, Stanford, Oregon

Lost - Florida st (did they even show up), BYU, and Byu 1st half, Ok. State, and Texas 1st half (done betting on us)

I need to be a little more selective in my games.

[seeingdouble]

Should we post NFL action in this thread or start a separate thread for NFL bets?

[bluto]

f'n okie st got me real bad.

[hockeydude]

Another small parlay comes through:

09/08 11:16 PM 136323499- 1 3 team Parlay $30.00 $190.01 Football NFL - Minnesota Vikings +5½ -110 for Game
Football NFL - Houston Texans +3 Ev for Game
Football NCAA - Auburn Tigers -3 -110 for Game

If Dallas covers tonight, I'll hit 4 parlays in 1 weekend. I need to stop betting for the year!!!

[hockeydude]

My Book doesn't have this yet, but Yahoo shows the early line of UT -3.

Now, not to be a homer, but that looks way too good to pass up!!

[Huckleberry]

Vegas Kyle over at FLV is 19-8 after two weeks.

So ends this week's plug.