NFL Lockout in 2011: How Likely?

[Vic Mackey]

How likely is this? I really do not know much in detail about what is all in the CBA and what the players and owners each want. How likely is this? I know it has happened a few times in the past but in this day in time, how much revenue this sport brings in and how popular it is, would they seriously go through with this?

With the way the economy is, how will folks react to multi multi millionaires on both sides not coming to an agreement over money issues? Some people never forgave baseball for the 1994 season. NHL canceled the whole 2004-2005 season. NBA locked out most the regular season in 1999. So it's been done recently. But the NFL is different to me. I do not see an agreement not being made by the two sides with all that is at stake.

[hobbes2702]

I think it is almost a guarantee at this point. Especially with the idea of going to 18 games becoming important now. Players DO NOT want 18 game schedules but Goodell and the owners are trying to make it happen.

[Vic Mackey]

I think it is almost a guarantee at this point. Especially with the idea of going to 18 games becoming important now. Players DO NOT want 18 game schedules but Goodell and the owners are trying to make it happen.

If they go to 18 games, will they have to raise their salaries accordingly? I do not know how their pay structure is. Are they paid the same amount for preseason games as regular season games? I'm sure they can not be.

But NFL went from 14 to 16 back in the day. I'm sure they did not like that, either. I personally do not like it and think it's way too many. NFL is great because really almost every game means something, unlike all the other 3 major sports. But 16 games is grueling enough to go through with all the injuries that happen.

[linux]

At what point is injury worth less than a marginal raise? fuck the NFL and their TV contract bullshit, they want the lockout because they get guaranteed TV money without paying salaries.

[BigOrange]

if it keeps aj williams on campus for one more year, i hope it happens.

[Connor_Macleod]

as likely as at least 3 more greg davis threads by Saturday and 4 losses.

[Vic Mackey]

as likely as at least 3 more greg davis threads by Saturday and 4 losses.

Damn. So it's pretty damn likely.

[mdmost]

Very likely. Someone has to save the owners from themselves.

[Urinal Cake]

Owners don't want 18 games. They throw it out there so the union "compromise" on 16 games with lower revenue sharing.

[BurntOrange&White]

With the possible 18 game schedule I'd say about 80% likely

[AnotherUTFan]

Owners don't want 18 games. They throw it out there so the union "compromise" on 16 games with lower revenue sharing.

I think this is correct.


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[SpiralOut]

I think it's fairly likely. Leave it to a bunch of ultra rich fuckers to go all Scrooge McDuck and screw us out of a year of football.

[tx 3 putt]

i thought owners wanted to go to a fixed payment to the players, instead of a roving % ?

[rantanamo]

Owners don't want 18 games. They throw it out there so the union "compromise" on 16 games with lower revenue sharing.

Where have you seen or heard this? The owners have already met and decided this was what they wanted.

[fortyakers]

Can we somehow finagle this that the only person locked out is Jerry Jones? Cause that'd be swell.

[slorch]

I personally enjoyed my favorite team playing on this past Sunday.

If the NFL and its players can't get this shit straight, then fuck em. Bring on the college games...

[KC-97HORN]

I think it's fairly likely. Leave it to a bunch of ultra rich fuckers to go all Scrooge McDuck and screw us out of a year of football.

There is a reason why the NFL hasnt had major labor strife since 1987.

Its because the players learned in 1987 that Americans will watch anything on Sunday called NFL football- as long as the "Dallas Cowboys", "Pittsburgh Steelers" & "New York Giants" are playing something called football that counts towards the regular season. Other than college football, there isnt any other "minor" league for football, so theres a lot of guys that are 1 or 2 years out of college that were decent players that just didnt make the NFL. Come lockout- those scrubs become the real players

In 1987 the players went through money like shit through a goose and after only 3 weeks of not getting paid something like 30% of the players were stone broke- which forced the players back to the bargaining table real quick and got the current deal.

If the players try to do the same thing as 1987, they will be locked out of 2011, and we will watch a variation of "The Replacements" & Michael Irvin's Spike TV show last year in 2011.

and you know what? most americans will still watch the games- the stars wont be playing, but everyone LOVES the underdog fighting for their last chance to prove themselves.

The players are fucking delusional if they dont think the owners will still make money on a lockout season

[KC-97HORN]

Also- heard on 104.9 last week that 78% of NFL players were stone broke after just 2 years out of the NFL.

If the players do get locked out for a year, they will come crawling back to the negotiating table with their tail between their legs, and they will get stuck with an 18 game season, a huge rookie salary cap as well as all kinds of forced problems they dontt want.

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand]

what kc said. the players are guaranteed to lose.

http://www.luxist.com/2010/09/02/mia...ring-practice/

I'm always amazed by players who wear their diamonds into battle. Serena Williams has played tennis in hers and track star Sanya Richards once nearly lost a $20,000 diamond brooch on the track. Both could perhaps understand the pain of Miami Dolphins defensive end Kendall Langford who lost a 2.5-carat diamond earring at practice on Tuesday. Langford forgot to take out the pricey piece of jewelry and it went missing on the field. The piece was not insured. Langford and his teammates carefully searched for the diamond but did not locate it and eventually left the field for a team meeting. The grounds crew combed the turf but the earring was not recovered. Langford has not said what the earring's value was but a pair of earrings of that size could be worth around $50,000.

[Bevo5]

I say lock them out and completely restructure the salary situation into a fixed-rate, incentive-based system. You get paid for what you do on the field and it's a league-wide amount. A TD if worth 50k, interceptions are worth 25k.

So....enact that system. In about 5 years when football players realize their parks and rec degrees aren't really worth that much on the open market they'll come back and agree to whatever. Until then the owners field replacement teams....

Actually, I think this would make a great movie. Maybe there's a down-and-out QB who needs one lost shot at glory to prove to himself he could do it. Maybe there's a cop and a convict who finally gain respect for each other on the field. I don't know, just spit-ballin.

[longhrnfan]

I think the 18 game push is a bargaining tool.

[iamthepush]

i'd say at least half of the players are living paycheck to paycheck and are going to feel it as soon as they lock out. so i don't think a lock out will last very long.

[mdmost]

I personally enjoyed my favorite team playing on this past Sunday.

If the NFL and its players can't get this shit straight, then fuck em. Bring on the college games...

I'm pretty sure college would fill the void. There are so many games that aren't shown that they could surely spread games to Sunday and be fine.

[kevwun]

I've wondered the same about an 18 game schedule. I think it's just something the owners threw out so they can give in on it during the negotiations and not give up something they actually want. Going by how the NFLPA caves on everything, they'll probably buy it. They're such a joke. In no other league would something like the franchise tag be approved by the players' union.

[Soul Glo]

fuck that. It would fucking suck without the NFL. There's already only about 4 or 5 games a week in college that are of any real substance. You aint gonna spread mothercuking WAC and MAC and Big East games across the week and make me forget that football played by real professionals is not getting played.

Last sunday was Maryland - Navy and SMU - Tech. Does that sound like something we could live off of? I was wanting to watch Law & Order halfway through each of those games.

[MC Fresh Breath]

One of the things I enjoy about the NFL, and football in general, is the relatively short season in comparison to other sports. Leaves you at just about the right time. I don't know if 18 will push it over the edge, but more doesn't sound good to me.

[UTinBigD]

One of the things I enjoy about the NFL, and football in general, is the relatively short season in comparison to other sports. Leaves you at just about the right time. I don't know if 18 will push it over the edge, but more doesn't sound good to me.

I would wager that the pre-season games would be cut by 2. The total length of the season would not change. Maybe they add one more bye week, though.

scabs should make for an interesting FF Draft. I just need something resembling the NFL to keep having our draft in Vegas every year. otherwise...sad 'nana

[mdmost]

fuck that. It would fucking suck without the NFL. There's already only about 4 or 5 games a week in college that are of any real substance. You aint gonna spread mothercuking WAC and MAC and Big East games across the week and make me forget that football played by real professionals is not getting played.

Last sunday was Maryland - Navy and SMU - Tech. Does that sound like something we could live off of? I was wanting to watch Law & Order halfway through each of those games.

Pretty sure, ESPN/ABC will back the truck up to schools like Texas, OU, tOSU, Bama and the like to get them to play some big OOC games or move their decent games to Sunday.

[iamthepush]

One of the things I enjoy about the NFL, and football in general, is the relatively short season in comparison to other sports. Leaves you at just about the right time. I don't know if 18 will push it over the edge, but more doesn't sound good to me.

the season length is perfect for the nfl. short enough to make every game count but long enough that it not earth shattering to lose a game.

[Soul Glo]

I'm not sure how feasible it is to go renegotiating dates of games and travel arrangements.

Then you have a bunch of games moved and then the NFL signs their agreement and their games are back on, what do you do then, move the games again so ESPN can televise what they want when they want?

Even if they worked all of that out, speaking personally, I love college football, but not to the extent that it could make me forget the NFL isn't playing. Hell No. There are too many shit-tastic games in college, with high school level players running 4.8 40's.

[HoosierHorn]

the question isn't IF, but "How long?"

the owners have ultimate leverage over the players... the owners are BILLIONAIRES... the players are mostly hundred-thousandaires... and most would be broke in less than a year.

the 18 games will happen because it makes more money for everyone - it increases the pie - the beer man, the advertisers, the networks, the league, the teams, the owners, the players...
it's easier for the players to accept a smaller percentage of the pie if the pie is bigger. it's easier for the owners to hire more players and pay higher salaries if they not only have a bigger pie, but have a bigger percentage of a bigger pie and aren't guaranteeing $50MM to a rookie. it's easier for the league to renegotiate the TV contracts. the networks don't have to renegotiate anything. all they have to do is sell more ads. the beer man WILL buy more ads, because he WILL sell more beer.

i'm guessing it'll get done about 4 weeks into the season.

[slorch]

I still say they could add another bye week to the season to make it longer and still grow revenue without adding games and changing the dynamics of scheduling, playoff races, and depth.

[BrothaHorn]

http://nfl-facts-and-rumors.blogs.cb...75988/24417268

“I still feel that a lockout is coming in March,” Smith told Bloomberg Sports .

Smith's biggest point of contention is the NFL refusing to actually provide financial information relating to their claim that they're not pulling in enough cash. (Enough here, of course, is relative.)

“If this model is not working, i.e. teams are losing money, then we’re willing to see the evidence of that and make the changes,” Smith said. “But prove it. If not, what’s the justification for getting a billion back from us?”

JaMarcus and Maurice are pushing for a lockout..

And there's no reason the NFL should not be playing the 1st sunday in September, any damn way..

[HoosierHorn]

I still say they could add another bye week to the season to make it longer and still grow revenue without adding games and changing the dynamics of scheduling, playoff races, and depth.

the biggest and most immediate revenue growth would come from selling more regular season tickets and selling more ads on TV... everything else is something they could do with 16 games or with 18 games. any other strategy or tactics to grow revenue could still be done on top of that. there's almost no way 18 games won't, eventually, happen.

[HoosierHorn]

http://nfl-facts-and-rumors.blogs.cb...75988/24417268

JaMarcus and Maurice are pushing for a lockout..

And there's no reason the NFL should not be playing the 1st sunday in September, any damn way..

Both sides might be prepared if there is a work stoppage in 2011. Smith said the union has saved $200 million in a lockout fund, but wouldn’t say how he planned to use it. The league will still get $4 billion in television money whether or not there is a lockout, under its contracts with News Corp.’s Fox, CBS Corp., General Electric Co.’s NBC, Walt Disney Co.’s ESPN and DirecTV.
“Fifty percent of their overhead is players’ salaries and benefits,” Smith said. “They can lock us out, and it’s a net- win for them.”

like i said... this is why it'll get done. hundreds of soon to be broke-ass players vs 32 billionaire entities.

[destroya]

I'd like to see a rookie salary cap/pay scale. I imagine it will be one of the first things the players agree to, since it won't negatively affect any active players and could help raise the pay of the rank and file players.

[Texas Dan]

As long as college football is a go, I couldn't give a shit less about the NFL.

[linux]

If the pro football went away I might actually like the sport more, the whole grinding injury that players go through would be more palatable if the game ended at 21.

[Earl's Second Coming]

If the pro football went away I might actually like the sport more, the whole grinding injury that players go through would be more palatable if the game ended at 21.

Fuck that. They'd be like female Olympic gymnasts with a titanium hip and nothing to show for their life's work at 19. At least the NFL gives them a financial incentive to ruin their body.

[linux]

I would love to see the studies though for pro running backs vs non-pro, controlling for number the number of snaps too. Ricky in his mighty wisdom was right, it is better to not be great, take half the snaps but be healthy and happy.

[Drunken Mule]

Fuck that. They'd be like female Olympic gymnasts with a titanium hip and nothing to show for their life's work at 19. At least the NFL gives them a financial incentive to ruin their body.

What about whores and titty dancers dude?

[Earl's Second Coming]

What about whores and titty dancers dude?

They're hot too

[lazytexasfan]

Last sunday was Maryland - Navy and SMU - Tech. Does that sound like something we could live off of? I was wanting to watch Law & Order halfway through each of those games.

in defense of those games, they were both fun to watch and both came down to the wire.

i get what you're saying, but as long as it's not a blowout of two teams from a shitty conference, i'll watch

[BrothaHorn]

like i said... this is why it'll get done. hundreds of soon to be broke-ass players vs 32 billionaire entities.

If my fuzzy math is correct, that's only $117k for each player, sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeit. Outside of a few who the the big signing bonus'(and actually saved some money), you hit it out Hoosier, buncha broke ass, tatted up, minimum education having fools will be lookin for jobs.

[In10se D]

Rookie pay cap should be wanted by all players in the league so more cash goes to guys who have played in the league.

18 games will happen no matter what, the players want their current salaries prorated out to the extra 2 games. Owners are saying they're taking away 2 preseason games so still 18 games total.

[Vic Mackey]

Yeah the whole rookie pay scale is fucking insane. How can you give guaranteed move like they did to Bradford before he has even taken a snap in practice, much less on the real field? You need to earn your pay. Bradford got more guaranteed than every other QB out there it seemed. Definitely need to change that asap. And I'm sure that will be a point of emphasis.

And if there is a lockout, will there be replacement players like there was in the 80s? Or just no football at all?

[Earl's Second Coming]

Yeah the whole rookie pay scale is fucking insane. How can you give guaranteed move like they did to Bradford before he has even taken a snap in practice, much less on the real field? You need to earn your pay. Bradford got more guaranteed than every other QB out there it seemed. Definitely need to change that asap. And I'm sure that will be a point of emphasis.

And if there is a lockout, will there be replacement players like there was in the 80s? Or just no football at all?

Are the owners today any less greedy than they were in the '80's?

[linux]

It all depends on whether the TV contract holds, the players union have a very strong case that it be burned. But if there is a strike the networks would pay the same they do now, but without expenses from games the ownrers want a lockout.

[Vic Mackey]

What players would they grab to play? Arena League guys? And how fast could 32 teams fill a 53 man roster and get them ready to play in that quick a time frame.

[SeeVinceRun]

fuck that. It would fucking suck without the NFL. There's already only about 4 or 5 games a week in college that are of any real substance. You aint gonna spread mothercuking WAC and MAC and Big East games across the week and make me forget that football played by real professionals is not getting played.

Last sunday was Maryland - Navy and SMU - Tech. Does that sound like something we could live off of? I was wanting to watch Law & Order halfway through each of those games.

QFT.

I love me some Longhorns football, but ya gotta be fucking kidding me that some of you would want to watch the shit matchups we would be sure to be stuck with on a Sunday at the collegiate level.

And I'll go ahead and say it: NFL > NCAA until NCAA has playoffs. Not even close.